After another year of churning out more graphs and analysis than everyone else combined, Knight Frank’s research team picks its favourite prime property stats from the last 12 months…
Prime Central London
The decline in £1 million-plus property sales in the year to April 2015, following on from last year’s Stamp Duty changes
The house price growth in Dulwich since Land Registry records began in 1995. Growth has been stronger than anywhere else in the UK and the equivalent of 12% per year for two decades
The proportion of super prime property buyers under 40 in the year to 30 June 2015 compared to 10.7% in the preceding 12-month period
Where London ranks amongst world cities in terms of importance for global high-net-worth individuals, according to 2015’s Wealth Report (above New York and Hong Kong)
Price growth in Chelsea Riverside since 2005
Tom Bill, Knight Frank’s head of London residential research: “Only a year since George Osborne raised stamp duty rates for properties worth more than £1.1 million, the Chancellor announced an increase in stamp duty for buy-to-let investors and second home buyers.
“The new measure is an attempt to address concerns surrounding affordability and house price inflation but raises fresh questions over the dampening effect on tax revenues just as buyers and sellers in prime London were showing tentative signs of absorbing the previous increase.
“Combined with timely new measures on housebuilding and home ownership in the Autumn Statement, it squarely addresses what will become the political battleground during the 2016 London Mayoral campaign, leaving central government less open to accusations it is not tackling affordability concerns.
“In the short-term, it is likely to produce an upturn in activity as buyers act before the April 2016 deadline and there is already anecdotal evidence of added impetus during transactions.
“Furthermore, a growing number of vendors are setting asking prices that reflect the heightened sensitivity to pricing among buyers since last December’s stamp duty change and where asking prices have come down, the market is operating in a relatively normal manner and tapping into underlying demand that remains resilient.”
- 17.3 square metres
How much US$1m buys you in Monaco, where resi prices are the highest in the world
By how many Singapore’s ultra-high net worth population (UHNW) is forecast to rise by between 2014 and 2024
Property costs charged to foreign investors for a US$10m investment over a five year period in Shanghai, the lowest out of 15 major global centres surveyed in 2015
Tax costs for foreign investors at year five whether purchasing a US$1m or US$10m property in Monaco (the lowest recorded across the same 15 cities)
- New York & London
The two cities currently leading development trends in terms of design, pricing and iconic architecture
Annual price growth in Val d’Isere, top of the 2015 Ski Property Index
Increase in online viewings of island properties for sale compared with a year earlier
How much property accounts for in an UHNWI’s investment portfolio, according to 2015’s Attitudes Survey
- Cape Town, Zurich and Toronto
The global cities that posted the strongest rises in prime rents in the year to June 2015
Kate Everett-Allen, Partner, International Residential Research, Knight Frank: “As we enter a new era of rising interest rates, greater regulation and potentially lower returns, it will be interesting to see which cities’ prime residential markets will outperform. Events in the world’s two largest economies look set to dominate the proceedings in 2016. The scale of the slowdown in China and the recent US interest rate rise will determine the performance of property markets across developed and emerging markets alike over the next 12 – 18 months.
“If we are to pick one prime market which we predict will outperform the world’s top tier of global cities, it is Sydney. Nonetheless, even here the pace of luxury price growth is expected to slow from 15% year-on-year in 2015 to 10% in 2016. Australia’s economic slowdown, weaker stock market performance in recent months and the introduction of foreign investment fees explain the lower rate of growth in 2016.”
Nicholas Holt, Director of Asia Pacific Research, Knight Frank: “The rise in US interest rates will most directly impact currencies with dollar or basket-based pegs which will see interest rates dragged upwards in parallel with the greenback – most notably the Hong Kong and Singapore dollars.
“In both of these markets, residential product has benefited from cheap credit over the last few years. Holding everything else equal, an increase in interest rates will have a dampening effect on these two global cities as the cost of debt increases. We could see sales volumes compromised as new purchasers see mortgage rates rise, and the attraction of property as an investment recede slightly.
“However, cooling measures that we have seen put in place in both Hong Kong and Singapore could counter balance these impacts. The measures provide policy makers with the opportunity to try and re-inflate demand if market corrections prove too much. A reversal or softening of some of these temporary policies could therefore be a very real possibility.”