“There’s no point pretending this Budget will be anything other than a nightmare before Christmas,” declares one of London’s best known luxury property brokers, Becky Fatemi – neatly summarising the feelings of nearly all our pundits when questioned about what’s likely to happen on 26th November.

After months of policy kite-flying and rabid media speculation, some property tax rises “are inevitable, none of which will have a positive effect on the housing market,” warns Ollie Marshall, Director of buying agency Prime Purchase. “The Chancellor faces an unenviable task,” notes Louisa Brodie of buying agency/property developer Banda, while everyone agrees that certainty and stability would be the best medicine for a beleaguered property market.

A realm of potential tax hikes have been floated in recent months, most of which specifically target the prime residential property market. There’s been talk of an annual “mansion tax” on homes worth more than £2mn; an extra band to Council Tax (which may be the same thing), adding CGT to primary residences; extending inheritance tax; replacing Stamp Duty with an annual levy, and of introducing an over-arching wealth tax on assets above £10mn.

Of the smorgasbord of unappealing options, there seems to be a consensus that Council Tax reform is – in the words of Winkworth boss Dominic Agace – “the least bad way to raise tax from property”.

But there’s also a widespread view that Chancellor Reeves should consider breaking Labour’s election manifesto pledge, and raise one of the big taxes rather than tinker around the edges. “Most of my clients accept they’ll face higher taxes,” says Jess Simpson, co-founder of rural property consultancy Stoneacre Advisors, “but they’d far rather see a modest increase in income tax than a raft of complicated property levies.”

Talking Heads

My hope for the budget is that the Chancellor realises how important the property market is for growth and rather than continuing to tax it into oblivion, looks at ways of stimulating it

Camilla Dell, founder of buying agency Black Brick

“I have never seen so much kite flying from a Chancellor in the run up to a budget. This combined with the timing of the budget being so delayed has caused confusion, uncertainty and many buyers and sellers to completely stall their plans until after the budget.

“The Chancellor seems dead set on not breaking the labour manifesto to touch income tax, VAT or NI for working people, but in my opinion one of the easiest and simplest ways to raise revenue would be to stick 1p on income tax. The problem with the continued tinkering of property tax is the uncertainty and stalling of a market that is already suffering.

“My hope for the budget is that the Chancellor realises how important the property market is for growth and rather than continuing to tax it into oblivion, looks at ways of stimulating it. Abolishing SDLT and replacing it with an annual levy so that SDLT is in effect paid over a far greater period of time would in my opinion be very positive for the market and enable people to move more frequently. Other measures she has mooted such as a mansion tax on homes worth more than £2mn and CGT on the sale of primary residences would be less impactful and far more damaging for the market and indeed the world’s perception of the UK as a place to invest in real estate.”

We welcome some stability, whatever shape the new normal may take

Joanna Cocking, Head of Private Office at Hamptons

“For those properties already on the market – we’ve seen an acceleration of activity driven by a growing urgency to expedite exchanges, to avoid being caught out. Buyers and sellers are keen to secure deals swiftly, with a better the devil you know mentality. We’ve just completed two fast-tracked exchanges at £4.8mn and £4.9mn, and are currently progressing a conditional exchange on an £8mn property.

“Those who are not yet on the market are pressing pause on decision-making, as prospective buyers and sellers wait to see what changes might come. We are now a month away from the event, and people are starting to accept that change is coming, and are becoming more pragmatic in their approach.

“With media speculation constant, it would seem that everyone has a view – but in reality, uncertainty and speculation are bad for business. The property market needs clarity, and we welcome some stability, whatever shape the new normal may take.”

Any broad increase in property taxation would be counterproductive

Louisa Brodie, Head of Private Clients at buying agency / property developer / design house Banda

“The Chancellor faces an unenviable task, raising revenue while preserving confidence in a currently nervous market. Any broad increase in property taxation would be counterproductive, risking liquidity and deterring the very investment London needs. The most constructive path would be targeted reform that supports mobility, encourages overseas capital, and restores confidence to domestic buyers. Stability and clarity will deliver far more to the Treasury, and to the economy, than short-term, punitive measures.

“With a fiscal gap to close, the temptation to look to property for quick revenue is understandable. But heavy-handed interventions, whether through a new wealth tax or further Stamp Duty increases, would suppress transactions and reduce already dwindling receipts. The Prime London property market thrives on liquidity and confidence. A stable, transparent framework that rewards investment and movement will, in the long run, generate more for the Exchequer than measures that simply penalise ownership.”

The worst would be a Mansion Tax that might as well be called the ‘London & South East Tax’

Becky Fatemi, Executive Partner at luxury real estate brokerage Sotheby’s International Realty UK

“There’s no point pretending this Budget will be anything other than a nightmare before Christmas. At best it’s going to be painful; at worst, a catastrophe. It feels naïve to expect anything genuinely supportive of the market. But if the government truly wanted to drive growth, it would focus on confidence, inward investment and mobility, not on squeezing those already contributing the most.

“London’s super-prime market sustains thousands of jobs, from architects and designers to builders and suppliers. You can’t tax aspiration and expect growth. When confidence disappears, investment and opportunity disappear too.

“Yes, London will always endure. It remains one of the most desirable cities in the world for both UK and international UHNW buyers because of its lifestyle, culture, education and connectivity. But that doesn’t mean the government should simply rely on that reputation to do the heavy lifting. Policy should actively encourage global and domestic investment, not test its limits. UHNW buyers today have more options than ever, from Dubai and Singapore to Paris and Miami, and if London is made less welcoming through punitive taxes or uncertainty, many will simply look elsewhere.

“From a Prime Central London perspective, the government put the market on shaky ground with the non-dom reforms, and ever since, the focus has quietly shifted from the ultra-wealthy to the middle classes while dressing it up as “making the 1% pay more.” The rumours alone have already stalled activity. The best outcome now would be that most of them don’t come to pass.

“The worst would be a Mansion Tax that might as well be called the ‘London and South East Tax’, closely followed by higher Stamp Duty, rising Council Tax, Capital Gains Tax on primary residences and new inheritance restrictions. All of which would continue to send investment abroad, and when the wealthy leave, the tax burden doesn’t disappear; it just shifts to the middle classes.

“Unless Rachel Reeves is visited by the ghosts of Budgets past, present and future, the 26^th of November could be a nightmare for the property market.”

Abolishing or significantly reducing Stamp Duty for any new build home would be a sensible & impactful measure

Daniel Baliti, Managing Director & Founder of London property developer Vabel

“At Vabel, we believe that the government’s recent changes are a step in the right direction – particularly on the supply side – but they fall short of addressing the deeper demand-side challenges that continue to undermine the viability of new build schemes.

“Over the past five years, developers have increasingly found themselves completing projects only to face a limited market for sales, often resulting in losses. In our view, abolishing or significantly reducing Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) for any new build home would be a sensible and impactful measure. It would stimulate much-needed transactions, encourage the development of new homes, and deliver a dual benefit: improving housing supply and boosting economic growth – almost overnight. It would stimulate much-needed transactions, encourage the development of new homes, and deliver a dual benefit: improving housing supply and boosting economic growth – almost overnight.

“The reality is that developers can only build if the outcome is likely to be profitable. Unfortunately, successive governments have introduced well-intentioned policies – affordable housing quotas, CIL, sustainability and biodiversity requirements, fire safety regulations – that collectively have turned a viable model into a loss-making one.

“It’s also worth noting that the top rate of SDLT has tripled in the past 12 years, rising from 5% to 15%. This has undoubtedly had a chilling effect on the market. Property values in much of prime central London are now lower than they were in 2014, and this stagnation trickles down through the economy, affecting liquidity and confidence across the residential sector.

“We urge policymakers to consider targeted SDLT relief for new builds as a lever to unlock development, restore viability, and support the broader housing and economic agenda.”

The housing market doesn’t need more drama. It needs trust, clarity & a steady hand

Geoff Wilford, founder of boutique estate agency Wilfords London

“The rumoured Mansion Tax is the one that worries me most ahead of the budget. It’s being sold as a tax on the super-rich, but in reality, it’s a London Tax that hits hardworking families who already feel squeezed. In parts of Battersea, Wandsworth and Clapham, £2mn buys a good family home. Setting a flat threshold at that level would create an instant ceiling. Homes priced just above it would stick, buyers would use the tax as a bargaining tool, and confidence would drain away. It’s a policy that sounds simple but would quickly distort the market and punish the middle classes.

“Stamp Duty reform is another minefield. Shifting it onto sellers might sound fairer for first-time buyers, but it would cripple mobility further up the chain. Downsizers, who are vital to freeing up family homes, would face bigger bills and simply stay put. Even raising thresholds can be risky; every tweak to the system freezes decision-making as buyers and sellers wait to see what happens next. The market doesn’t need more stop–start cycles. It needs consistency.

“And then there’s the talk of taxing main homes through Capital Gains. That would be a toxic move for the market, instantly eroding confidence and discouraging people from moving altogether.

“What I’d like to see from this Budget is something that restores aspiration and confidence, so people move for positive reasons, not just for death, divorce or debt. A clear commitment to stability and a long-term plan to make Stamp Duty fairer would go a long way. Encouraging movement at every level of the market would raise far more for the Treasury than another round of headline-grabbing experiments. The housing market doesn’t need more drama. It needs trust, clarity and a steady hand.”

The real concern is the whisper of a Mansion Tax or tighter rules around Inheritance Tax

George Nares, co-founder of country & historic home specialist Blue Book Agency

“What the countryside needs now is stability, not surprise. A steady hand rather than a heavy one. Yes, the best in class is still trading but Reeves has the chance to rebuild confidence by resisting the temptation to meddle with an already fragile system. Reform to Stamp Duty that reduces it or eases the upfront cost would be welcome, but raising rates or shifting thresholds could do more harm than good. It’s already one of the biggest barriers to movement, especially for downsizers who keep the market flowing. A short-term tax grab there could cause long-term stagnation.

“The real concern is the whisper of a Mansion Tax or tighter rules around Inheritance Tax. Both would hit the country house market hard. A Mansion Tax would fall squarely on long-term owners who have spent years maintaining the homes that define our landscape. Likewise, any move to cap or limit Inheritance Tax reliefs would cause serious problems for landed families and estates that rely on intergenerational continuity to preserve historic properties and the rural jobs they sustain. These are not offshore investors; they are families keeping old houses upright, estates running and communities alive. Burdening them further would punish the very people safeguarding Britain’s rural heritage.

“What would help instead is targeted support that keeps the countryside moving and evolving: better broadband, improved infrastructure and meaningful incentives for sustainability and energy efficiency. Those are the policies that would truly make a difference.

“As Rachel Reeves prepares to open her red box, the country house market is holding its breath. Buyers and sellers alike are waiting to see whether she will calm the storm or conjure something that chills the market overnight. You can almost feel the collective pause before we discover what’s inside.”

Prime Central London already has some of the highest property taxes in the world

Shaun Drummond, Director of Harrods Estates

“The main things I am hoping won’t make it into the Budget are a Mansion Tax or any new levy on homes above £2mn. Prime Central London already has some of the highest property taxes in the world, between Stamp Duty on second homes, surcharges for overseas buyers and the recent overhaul of non-dom rules. The cumulative effect has been to make London feel like a much less welcoming place to invest. Yet another property tax would push more high-net-worth buyers away, draining confidence and international capital from a market that contributes significantly to the wider economy.

“The idea of extending Capital Gains Tax to people’s main homes would be even more damaging. It would paralyse movement right across the country, not just in Prime Central London. Families who might move up, downsize or relocate would stay put, knowing they could face a hefty bill for doing so. That would choke supply, slow transactions and undermine the very mobility the housing market relies on.

“The most positive step the Chancellor could take would be to help first-time buyers by cutting Stamp Duty or extending relief on purchases up to £600,000. That would ease the pressure on those struggling to get on the ladder and help unlock the rest of the market above them. But it must be done properly. Short-term incentives with artificial deadlines only create chaos, pushing prices up before the cut-off and causing a slump once it expires.

“Right now, the central London market is paralysed by rumour. Many of our overseas clients have been told by their advisors to wait until the Budget before acting, while months of continuous leaks have created uncertainty, confusion and paralysis in the PCL market.”

For too long, the property market has been driven by political noise rather than real demand

Jamie Freeman, Director of buying agency Haringtons UK

“The dream outcome at this Budget is stability. Buyers and sellers are desperate for consistency and a clear sign that the Government will not move the goalposts again. For too long, the property market has been driven by political noise rather than real demand. What we need now is confidence: protect main residence relief, avoid any Stamp Duty hikes, and introduce measures that genuinely encourage people to move. A meaningful incentive for downsizers or first-time buyers would show that the Government understands how vital market mobility is to the wider economy. A steady hand from the Chancellor would give people the reassurance they need to act, whether they are getting onto the ladder or moving on to their next chapter.

“A big win, though one that sadly will never happen, would be cutting Stamp Duty. I am no economist, but a frozen market brings nothing to the Treasury. Lowering the burden would get people moving, boost transactions and, ultimately, bring more money into the system through spending and investment. Right now, Stamp Duty is one of the biggest barriers to movement at every level of the market.

“The nightmare would be another round of so-called fairness measures that only spook the market. A mansion tax on homes over £2mn or capital gains tax on main residences might sound clever politically, but both would stall transactions overnight. Confidence is everything in property, and right now it is fragile. What we need is calm, continuity and clarity, not more political point-scoring that keeps people stuck.”

The worst-case scenarios for the PCL market would be the introduction of a wealth tax, the proposed mansion tax, and CGT on primary residences

Will Watson, Head of national buying agency The Buying Solution

“As we approach the 26th November Budget, there’s a fair amount of nervousness among our ultra-high-net-worth clients. The worst-case scenarios for the prime central London market would be the introduction of a wealth tax, the proposed mansion tax, and capital gains tax on primary residences, all of which would significantly dent confidence and deter both domestic and international buyers.

“A wealth tax, effectively an annual levy on net worth above a set threshold, would be particularly harsh on those whose assets are tied up in property and could prompt capital flight. Similarly, a mansion tax, which has been floated before as an annual charge on homes valued above £2 million, would hit London disproportionately hard, where values are higher, even for modest family homes in central postcodes.

“Introducing capital gains tax on primary residences would represent a major departure from long-standing policy and could discourage movement within the market altogether, as homeowners would be taxed on any gain when selling their main home.

“A more practical reform would be modernising council tax, which still relies on 1991 valuations. Updating it would be fairer, more transparent, and widely accepted. While a stamp duty cut is possible, I expect it will focus on the lower end of the market, sub-£500k, to stimulate activity. I can’t see any meaningful reductions at higher levels.”

Tax rises in this budget are inevitable, none of which will have a positive effect on the housing market

Ollie Marshall, Director of buying agency Prime Purchase

“Where to begin – the history books perhaps?

“On 18 February 1974 Dennis Healey said we should ‘squeeze property speculators until the pips squeak’ and warned there would be ‘howls of anguish from the rich’ in response. Sound familiar? One IMF bailout and 50 years later, there are no speculators and most of the rich have already gone to Dubai or some other welcoming tax haven.

“Putting all the proposed property taxes aside, UK government debt is at eye-watering levels and neither tax rises nor cuts alone will fix the problem. It is worth noting that £9.7 billion of interest was paid in September and the money they are looking to raise to fill the so-called black hole in our finances is equivalent to 3 or 4 months of interest payments. Read into that what you will.

“Subsequently, tax rises in this budget are inevitable, none of which will have a positive effect on the housing market. All we can hope for is a budget balanced with just as much in the way of spending cuts as tax increases, which I suspect is wishful thinking. In any event Dennis Healy will be rubbing his hands at the thought of finding new company in the history books of failed economic policy.

“With regard to the proposal regarding capital gains tax on primary residences – what CGT? Unless you bought in prime central London 20 years ago, there is no CGT. Stamp duty has already carved up those profits.

“As far as stamp duty reform is concerned, there is potential for this to be net positive by removing the upfront costs of purchase but it will all depend on annual charges, thresholds and how and when the money is collected. As for charging sellers stamp duty instead of buyers? I’d argue in central London sellers have already paid the stamp duty in the form of price reductions since 2014 to accommodate higher taxes.”

A removal of Stamp Duty – to be replaced by an annual tax – could cause a boost to market activity over the longer term, not just temporarily

Matt Henderson, Residential Research Lead at Strutt & Parker

“There have been weeks of speculation of what to expect in the Autumn Budget after the Government delayed it to the 26^th November. This period of ambiguity before the Budget, much longer than previous years, has had a huge impact; creating an environment where buyers and sellers are hesitant to transact, uncomfortable by not knowing what the tax landscape will be post-Budget. This uncertainty has a tangible impact at the top end of the market where buyers are more discretionary and can afford to sit and wait before making an investment.

“We need a market that is moving and transacting. If done correctly, a removal of Stamp Duty – to be replaced by an annual tax – could cause a boost to market activity over the longer term, not just temporarily. The benefits of this would have a wider impact than just the property market. Higher sales volumes encourage developers to build more and make the housing ladder possible to climb for those with that ambition. It’s important to remember that one of Labour’s first pledges was to get Britain building again. The past few weeks are evidence that uncertainty and heavy wealth taxation will only serve to limit transactions and inhibit housing delivery.”

There is little positivity for the prime property market

Lisa Simon, Head of Residential at Carter Jonas

“There is certainly concerns for the sales market, particularly due to information that has been drip fed or leaked to us in the last few weeks. There is little positivity for the prime property market. SDLT reform could be bad news for the upper end of the market, an area which is clearly a target. Property owners who have extended their properties and added considerable value could be really affected if Council Tax banding is revisited (currently based on April 1991 values). Another possibility is that SDLT is replaced with a tax on selling. This would put off downsizers of larger properties and could impact people’s retirement plans which often includes surplus money in their home when they downsize.

“The government is reportedly considering ending the exemption of high-value primary residencies from Capital Gains Tax (aka ‘mansion tax’) with the threshold rumoured to be £1.5mn. Again, this could disproportionately impact the markets in London and the Southeast, as well as potential downsizers who are already discouraged from selling their homes because of other tax implications.

“With the introduction of the Renters Rights Bill, I believe that the private rental sector and its landlords have had enough government intervention this year and shouldn’t be asked to bear any extra surprises. It is increasingly hard to cover costs and make a return as a landlord and if the CGT rates, for example, are increased there will be fewer and fewer investors who will want to become landlords, which will mean and even higher shortage of rental properties than we already have.”

The fear is not of higher taxation per se, but of unpredictability & policy that feels punitive rather than strategic

 Tom Adams, CEO of RedBook Agency

“The challenge for the Chancellor is to raise revenue without undermining confidence in one of the UK’s most globally admired assets – its property market. The top end of the real estate sector contributes disproportionately to the wider economy, supporting a vast network of architects, designers, builders, artisans, and professional services. Any blunt instrument like a mansion tax or extending CGT to primary residences risks stalling transactions, depressing liquidity, and ultimately reducing total tax take.

“From our vantage point advising clients on major residential projects, we see that many high-net-worth homeowners are already hesitating in light of fiscal uncertainty. The fear is not of higher taxation per se, but of unpredictability and policy that feels punitive rather than strategic. Stability and clarity are what our clients value most. They allow long-term investment in Britain’s homes and heritage.

“If the Government wishes to raise meaningful revenue, reforming outdated Council Tax bands or improving the efficiency of stamp duty collection would be less distortionary than new wealth or property levies. Above all, the Budget should signal that the UK remains open, stable, and respectful of success, the qualities that have historically attracted global capital to its housing market.”

Most of my clients accept they’ll face higher taxes, but they’d far rather see a modest increase in income tax than a raft of complicated property levies

Jess Simpson, co-founder of rural property consultancy Stoneacre Advisors

“The culmination of various proposed property taxes has created a completely stagnant market in the super-prime sector. Buyers are paralysed by uncertainty. They’ll still purchase, but only after factoring in a steep discount to offset perceived risk. Are they more comfortable at 10% less or 50% less? This balance is dictated by the usual emotive reasons for purchasers and how motivated sellers are.

“Confidence, not affordability, is now the biggest issue. Most of my clients accept they’ll face higher taxes, but they’d far rather see a modest increase in income tax – it’s predictable, transparent and easier to manage – than a raft of complicated property levies that distort the market and hit the super-prime country estates, farms and housing market the hardest. Some will just factor higher taxes into negotiations, others will decide that the second home in the country is not worth having anymore. Especially combined with increased costs of running the house, staff shortages and so on.

“Our wish list for the Autumn Budget is simple. We want clarity, consistency and confidence. We’d like to see a firm rejection of any new mansion tax, which would unfairly penalise long-term owners and distort values in the prime country house and estate market.

“There needs to be a review and reform of stamp duty, which in its current form continues to choke activity at the top end of the market, particularly from international buyers purchasing larger houses as second homes.

“We also need a sensible and stable approach to inheritance tax, a reinstatement of the IHT reliefs for actively farmed land, with clear long-term rules that protect family estates and encourage succession planning rather than forcing sales.

“And above all, a commitment to stability. No more sudden changes or headline-grabbing property taxes that damage confidence and stall transactions.

“What this market needs most is predictability. If the government can provide a clear and consistent framework, the £10 million-plus country house, farms and states sector will respond quickly, restoring liquidity, supporting rural employment and driving wider economic activity.”

There is real merit in overhauling the way we tax home ownership & home purchase

Marcus Dixon, Head of UK residential research at real estate consultancy JLL

“Speculation ahead of the November Budget has left the prime property market in a state of flux. Buyers and sellers can adapt, but the constant kite flying of proposals from mansion taxes to wealth levies is denting confidence and slowing transactions. There is real merit in overhauling the way we tax home ownership and home purchase, and some of the proposals we’ve seen pre-Budget could, if combined with changes elsewhere in the tax system, be positive for the housing market and treasury receipts.

“But policies that single out higher-value homes, such as a 1% mansion tax on properties above £2mn, risk shrinking activity in a market that already contributes disproportionately to Treasury receipts. Many of the ideas floated in recent months could actually reduce revenue, applying Capital Gains Tax to homes worth £1.5mn or more could discourage owners from selling, while shifting Stamp Duty costs from buyers to sellers above £500,000 could slow activity further. The top end is the most discretionary part of the housing market, and when it’s pushed too hard, activity simply stalls.

“Rather than introducing new headline-grabbing taxes, the Chancellor’s best route to raise revenue is to encourage activity. More activity in the housing market has wide ranging benefits for the economy and importantly reassures developers that they’ll be a ready market for new homes, vital if the government is to get anywhere near it’s 1.5 million homes target. A more balanced approach to property tax and initiatives to speed up and simplifying the buying process would help sustain transactions and, in turn, boost revenues.

“While many buyers, particularly at the upper end, are waiting for clarity before committing, a Budget that proves less harsh than feared or signals even a glimpse of stability could quickly revive confidence and encourage deals in early 2026.

“We’re hoping that on Budget day the Government will be looking for some quick wins and positive headlines from what is likely to be a challenging Budget. For the housing market more widely, support for first-time buyers or those purchasing more energy-efficient homes would be a smart way to lift sentiment and activity while helping to meet housing targets and align with environmental priorities. I’m not expecting significant breaks for the top end, but revisiting non-dom rules, particularly around global inheritance tax obligations would be welcome. Ultimately, we need clarity.”

Extending the council tax bands would be the least bad way to raise tax from property

Dominic Agace, Chief Executive of estate agency Winkworth

“Theworst fear would be CGT as that would freeze the market for larger properties and cause significant damage, creating a log jamon the housing ladder. Downsizing wouldceaseto be a concept,leaving people livingin houses ill-suited to them across the spectrum of properties.

“Replacing stamp duty would be the best outcome. It’s an inefficient tax that hinders social mobility, blockingpeople from being able to live in the houses that suit for their time in life.A fluid housing ladder where people move up, without unnecessary friction created by stamp duty is good for society, facilitating great mobility of the work force, with real economic benefits. This was proven by the stamp duty holiday used to generate momentum in the economy coming out of covid restrictions

“Extending the council tax bands would be the least bad way to raise tax from property so long as it isdone in a proportionate way to the existing costs,rather then a jump in costs or based on a percentage.”

We anticipate the Chancellor will take a measured approach

Nicholas Gray, Executive Director at property developer Native Land

“Clarity in policy is fundamental to sustaining confidence in the prime property market. Proposals such as a mansion tax or extending Capital Gains Tax to primary residences risk unsettling homeowners who have already paid substantial stamp duty and made long-term financial commitments. Retrospective measures of this kind could discourage mobility, reduce liquidity, and distort market dynamics.

“The most disruptive policies are those perceived as punitive or unpredictable. A mansion tax, for instance, could leave larger homes underutilised while pushing demand into lower price brackets, creating bottlenecks and subsequent unintended consequences. It’s essential that any reforms reflect the diversity of the prime market and avoid penalising those who have invested responsibly.

“If revenue must be raised, updating Council Tax bands to reflect current values may offer a more balanced and transparent approach. Reforming stamp duty to encourage transactions rather than deter them could also help unlock supply and stimulate growth.

“We anticipate the Chancellor will take a measured approach. The Government will be aware of the need to support both domestic and international investment. London remains a city with enduring global appeal, and the next generation of buyers is increasingly mobile, values-led, and sustainability-focused – looking for homes that reflect these values. These are the principles we embed in every Native Land development.”

I’m expecting there to be an increase in Council Tax

Charles Curran, Principal & Market Data Analyst at PCL estate agency Maskells 

“I’m expecting there to be an increase in Council Tax as a means of reducing the amount provided by Central Government to wealthier boroughs. However, we can’t yet determine whether this will be a function surrounding the overall value of a property itself or a direct increase in the bands alone, since a Council’s fiscal needs are met by the number of households in their borough paying, rather than by a fixed amount per property.

“We are not expecting Mansion Tax to be imposed on properties over £2mn, since this would undoubtedly cause litigation over valuations and perhaps a fall in the property values. A lowering of property prices is detrimental to the mortgage lenders who hold these properties as collateral against loans, making refinancing difficult and potentially requiring the lenders to assign more capital against each loan.

“A combination of high property taxes in the form of Stamp Duty on acquisition, Mansion Tax and increased Council Tax may well force many into rented accommodation right at a time when Landlord obligations under the Renters Rights Act are forcing some Landlords out of the market, thereby reducing stock and in turn pushing rental prices up.

“Furthermore, if the Budget also calls for National Insurance payments on rental income, Landlords may seek to leave the sector as they can obtain higher returns on their investments in other asset classes. This would compound the problem above.”

We don’t feel that the 26th of November is going to cause much radical change to PCL

Scott Joseph, Director & Head of Prime Central at Anderson Rose

“Labour’s latest political leaks along with recent speculations that have surfaced really don’t leave much up to the imagination when it comes to new changes or policies that may be implemented come the 26th of November.

“Like most, we expect to see an overall increase in taxes and potentially some marginal adjustments to Stamp Duty. However, we do not anticipate that any changes made will be significant enough to entice international investors back into Prime Central London and give the market the true boost of business that it needs to truly get back on its feet. We expect that any deals that are already in hand will follow through to completion post judgment announcements, but we don’t expect to witness any sort of influx in transactions before the end of the year.

“Most importantly, we want to remind buyers and investors that despite the annual nail-biting and uncertainty that typically arises this time of year ahead of the budget, we don’t feel that the 26th of November is going to cause much radical change to PCL whatsoever, so comfort can be taken from the fact that matters in the market will likely persist just as they have been for the past year, unless the Labour government take a U-turn and go back on their previously agreed policies, which is highly unlikely.”

The Government needs to stop spooking people with half-baked tax ideas and start creating reasons for them to move forward, not stay put

Richard Bryce, co-founder of property brokerage House Collective

“What the market needs from this Budget is stability and ambition, not another round of short-term politics. The UK has already become less welcoming to wealth. The non-dom changes sent a clear message to international buyers that London isn’t open for business, and Prime Central London is still feeling it. Now we’re hearing talk of a Mansion Tax on homes over £2mn and even Capital Gains on main residences. That combination would be toxic. It would send high-net-worth buyers straight to Paris, Lisbon or Dubai and drain the investment, jobs and spending that keep London’s market and economy alive.

“London should be made attractive again; not just to overseas investors but to anyone who wants to live, work and build a life here. The capital’s property market is a major engine for the UK economy, feeding countless industries from construction to design and retail. When high-value buyers feel confident, it benefits everyone. More taxes won’t raise more revenue; they’ll stifle movement, weaken sentiment and reduce overall activity. You can’t tax confidence back into existence.

“Then there’s Stamp Duty. It’s already a substantial tax and one of the biggest barriers to movement in the market. Shifting it onto sellers might sound clever, but it ignores how people actually behave. If you’ve spent decades building equity, you won’t hand a big chunk of it to the Treasury just to move somewhere smaller. That would stall sales overnight.

“The market needs a spark, not another scare. Even a short Stamp Duty cut would do more to unlock stock and boost confidence than any new levy. What drives the property market is optimism, aspiration and trust. The Government needs to stop spooking people with half-baked tax ideas and start creating reasons for them to move forward, not stay put.”

CGT reform would mean owners of prime property would pay considerably more than currently, but I doubt this would stifle market activity

Matthew Robertson, co-founder and CFO of super-prime property developer Valouran

“The top-end property market has already been damaged by the abolition of non-domicile status which has forced a significant number of buyers to reassess their plans to purchase in the UK. Any new policy that sought to impose a wealth tax on assets would further damage the market and the economy more widely – these business owners and drivers of economic growth will base themselves and their businesses in tax jurisdictions outside of the UK.

“Reform of the Council Tax regime is long overdue, with the valuations that inform the current bands not having been reviewed for almost 35 years. Yes, that would mean owners of prime property would pay considerably more than currently, but I doubt this would stifle market activity and would raise material tax revenues.”

“Labour has been toying with the idea of a ‘mansion tax’ for many years. Given the economic backdrop, I fear that they will finally implement this, levying Capital Gains Tax on those disposing of primary residences.”

Speculated tax changes could be the kiss of death to a market already on its knees

Nicholas Austin of specialist London estate agency RiverHomes (and Conservative councillor in Wandsworth)

“If the speculation around the November Budget proves correct, the proposed raft of new taxes from a 1% mansion tax and a wealth tax, to extending Capital Gains Tax to primary residences and replacing Stamp Duty with an annual property levy, could be the kiss of death to a market already on its knees.

“Such policies would paralyse the prime market, send investment overseas, and depress revenues as transactional activity collapses. London and the South East, where £2m+ homes are often owned by long-term residents rather than speculative investors, would be disproportionately punished. The housing market is not a golden goose to be endlessly plucked; it is a cornerstone of Britain’s economic stability and global appeal. You do not create wealth this way, and you do not create growth this way. Without a stable, proportionate, and investment-friendly tax framework, the UK risks dismantling the very foundation of its housing economy and driving away the people, capital, and confidence that have long sustained it.”

It’s important not to lose sight of London’s enduring appeal and long-term resilience

Alec Watt, CEO of Accouter Group of Companies

“While recent and proposed tax and planning policy decisions have undoubtedly been detrimental to market confidence — particularly at the top end of the housing spectrum — it’s important not to lose sight of London’s enduring appeal and long-term resilience.

“Speculation around the November Budget has created understandable unease among buyers, developers, and investors, but punitive or short-sighted measures such as a ‘mansion tax’ or extending Capital Gains Tax to primary residences would risk stifling liquidity, discouraging inward investment, and ultimately reducing overall tax receipts. The top end of the market plays a vital role in supporting employment across design, construction, and related industries, and undermining that ecosystem would be economically counterproductive.

“That said, despite the policy headwinds, London remains a uniquely compelling global city. Few other Western economies offer the same combination of cultural capital, time-zone advantage, legal transparency, education infrastructure, and international connectivity. For those taking a medium- to long-term view, London continues to represent one of the most stable and desirable environments to invest in real estate.

“Our hope for the Budget is that the Chancellor prioritises consistency and clarity over shock measures. A stable fiscal and planning framework would do more to stimulate growth — and in turn generate sustainable tax revenue — than any single short-term levy ever could.”

The Treasury will almost certainly reach for the quickest wins rather than anything strategic

Rupert Collingwood, founder of The London Broker

“Over recent months the Government has floated almost every conceivable property and wealth tax, from a proposed 1% mansion tax on homes above £2mn, to a wealth tax on assets over £10mn, the extension of capital gains tax to primary residences, and even the replacement of stamp duty with an annual levy. Interestingly no similar baloons on the spend side of the balance sheet have been seen.

“Much of the damage has already been done. It is hard to see what Reeves and Torsten Bell could have added to bring the market to a deeper standstill. The endless trial balloons since mid-July have had a chilling effect across every segment of the market. Proving that their politics has barely matured beyond the university lecture hall (at best).

“I am aware of stagnation everywhere, from country houses in East Kent to new-build homes in the Midlands and North, as well as prime and super-prime London. Land Registry data tells the story: Knightsbridge down 30%, Shoreditch down 40%, the visible scars of collapsing transaction volumes, as those forced to sell accept heavy reductions to shift stock. Recent analysis also shows that fall through rates in central london are up 90% against last year.

“Nothing is more damaging to any market than uncertainty, yet that seems to be precisely what this Government has chosen to create. Whether by design or accident, they have succeeded in freezing confidence and stalling activity, laying the groundwork for what promises to be a disastrous Budget, made only slightly less painful by the fact that much of damage is already visible.

“On the 26th of November the Treasury will almost certainly reach for the quickest wins rather than anything strategic in my view. I suspect movement towards a wealth tax, the extension of capital gains tax to higher-value primary residences, and possibly National Insurance on rental income. What I do not expect is the abolition of stamp duty in favour of a complex annual property tax, an idea floated in July that would have created a forty-billion-pound shortfall per Parliament for nearly two decades.

“Even if property taxes remain untouched this November, Reeves and Bell have already shown they cannot be trusted with the keys to Number Eleven. In barely four months they have managed to destroy any remaining confidence across multiple sectors, behaving like economic arsonists with a box of matches labelled ‘desperation’.

“Reeves and Starmer like to invoke the ghosts of Truss and Kwarteng, but at least Truss had the decency to go when her policies burned through market confidence. Reeves and Labour, by contrast, looks set to double down, taking what is left of the economy with them.”

The Budget won’t be as bad as we fear, but will be worse than we hope

James Greenwood of national buying agency Stacks Property Search

“The likelihood is that the Budget won’t be as bad as we fear, but will be worse than we hope. From a property point of view, the market has been jittery due to all the kite-flying; as soon as there’s some certainty, things can settle at a new normal.

“In terms of the best and worst options, and the one with least bad unintended consequences, an overhaul of the Council Tax system is most equitable and least damaging. The system is massively out of date, both in terms of bands and valuations. It’s not that hard to revalue most properties without the need to visit, and an annual chipping away at property owners is much less damaging than big headline announcements of new taxes.”

CGT on primary residences would almost certainly stall the market

Sharon Barnard of Stacks Property Search

“CGT on primary residences would almost certainly stall the market, which would of course reduce Stamp Duty payments. And a moving property market is vital to economic growth. So this would be an incredibly damaging policy.

“Stamp Duty is a tax that people hate, but that is generally accepted at current levels. If we see further increases it could be a serious anchor on the market.”

Any form of ‘mansion tax’ would likely have the greatest impact on homes priced between £1.5mn and £3mn

Rhianne McIlroy, prime property advisor at buying agency Middleton Advisors

“The introduction of any form of ‘mansion tax’ would likely have the greatest impact on homes priced between £1.5mn and £3mn, particularly those bought with significant borrowing. At this level, many owners are already managing large mortgages, rising finance costs and high running expenses. Adding an annual property charge could make ownership considerably less affordable, especially for households balancing private school fees or other major commitments.

“For the £10mn+ market, the effect would be less pronounced as buyers are typically less leveraged. But in the upper middle tier, it could prompt some owners to reassess budgets or delay moving until there’s clarity.”

The most damaging policy would be the extension of CGT to primary residences

Jason Tebb, president of property portal OnTheMarket

“There’s no doubt that the prime property market is at a critical juncture. The huge number of tax proposals floated in recent months has created an atmosphere of uncertainty that has already led to a slowdown, with markets around London and the Southeast hit the most.

“The most damaging policy would be the extension of CGT to primary residences. It would fundamentally alter the concept of homeownership, particularly in the prime segment, where long-term capital appreciation has historically underpinned mobility. Effectively penalising homeowners for selling their main property is likely to significantly discourage unessential movement, especially downsizing, which has long been at the crux of supply issues nationwide. This change to CGT may further exacerbate it. And as I have seen many times before, when the top end of the market stagnates, the rest does too.

“Recent research has already shown the mansion tax and annual property levy will disproportionately impact London and the Southeast, where some 80% of the liable properties are situated. These measures risk distorting buyer behaviour, and trigger price stagnation or erosion at the top end of the market, ultimately having the reverse effect on the intended tax revenue generation.

“The lesser of the revenue-raising evils lie in reforming outdated council tax bands and tightening loopholes through which individuals buy property through companies. Council tax reform could modernise a system that currently under-taxes high-value homes and overburdens lower-income households, with current bands set on values from over 30 years ago (England and Scotland – 20 years ago in Wales). Likewise, applying Stamp Duty to share transfers in property-holding companies would close a long-standing gap without penalising genuine homeowners. Another route could be to incentivise green upgrades through tax reliefs, encouraging investment in energy efficiency while supporting the government’s sustainability agenda (if it survives).

“Looking at what we can most likely expect on the 26^th, property tax seems inevitable, being all that’s realistically available since the government has ruled out raising income tax, NI, or VAT. As a best guess amid the raft of speculation, a phased reform of Stamp Duty could be on the cards – potentially replacing it with a proportional annual levy on homes above £500,000. That, and incremental CGT adjustments targeting the prime market.

“I actually see there being market benefit of a system that offers an option to repay Stamp Duty over time. One where buyers choose between paying in full at completion or spreading the cost over two-to-five years via a government-backed scheme. It’s actually something Andrews estate agents is currently lobbying for through petition. This could reduce upfront barriers to homeownership and help rebalance the tax burden over time without triggering some freefall in the prime residential markets.”

I believe the Budget will avoid drastic measures

Alex Isidro, Managing Director at United Kingdom Sotheby’s International Realty

“Negative rumours and headlines are not new in real estate, and the UK’s prime and super-prime sectors have consistently proven their resilience. Even now, despite uncertainty, our market data shows a substantial proportion of American buyers viewing the capital as undervalued in dollar terms and a secure long-term investment.

With investor confidence fragile, I believe the Budget will avoid drastic measures. Any form of wealth tax, such as mansion taxes or extending Capital Gains Tax to primary residences, would drive away overseas investment and stall transactions across all price points. The pragmatic solution would be a Council Tax revaluation by updating outdated bands that have remained untouched for years. This would generate necessary revenue while protecting momentum in the prime and super-prime property market.”

We need a rethink of stamp duty across the board

Liam Monaghan, Managing Director at buying agency / property investor LCP Private Office 

“Prime London’s property market needs a shot of confidence, but more importantly, it needs measures that actively help people to buy. Whether it’s first-time buyers trying to take their first step, overseas purchasers looking to invest in the capital or buy-to-let investors supporting the rental sector, the barriers to entry have simply become too high.

“I’d like to see real, practical help for buyers in this Budget. For first-time buyers, that means targeted support such as low-deposit mortgage schemes or stamp duty relief that makes a meaningful difference, rather than short-lived ‘holidays’ that just inflate prices and reduce transactions once the ‘holiday,’ ends. For overseas buyers, it means a freeze on the additional 2% surcharge and a clear message that Prime London remains open for international investment. And for landlords, reintroducing partial mortgage interest relief or reducing the capital gains burden for long-term holders would help stabilise the rental market, improve supply and ease pressure on tenants. The buy-to-let sector deserves a rebalance too. Should the current Government continue to punish private landlords, the supply and demand imbalance will continue and tenants will be left to suffer high rents and lack of availability.

“We also need a rethink of stamp duty across the board. The current structure penalises movement, discourages trading up or down and traps people in homes that no longer suit them. A more progressive model, particularly in the mid-to-upper brackets, would immediately boost demand and get transactions flowing again.

“The focus should be on encouraging people to buy, invest and move, not deterring them through constant new taxes. London thrives when buyers feel supported, not squeezed. If the government genuinely wants to see activity return, the Autumn Budget should prioritise incentives that make buying more achievable and keep the market moving from the bottom up. There should be no introduction of a mansion tax, any form of annual property levy or landlord national insurance and no changes to capital gains tax on main residences. Equally, any move to increase stamp duty or tighten rules for overseas buyers would only serve to stifle activity at a time when Prime London needs fresh momentum.

“Prime London thrives on liquidity and confidence and sadly right now, both are in short supply. A clear, measured approach to property taxation would send a powerful signal that the government wants to see the capital’s housing market moving again.”

The government should be trying to stimulate the economy, not suffocate it

Mark Harris, chief executive of mortgage broker SPF Private Clients

“All this pre-Budget talk has been extremely unhelpful as it has acted as a handbrake, with people deferring decisions.

“A mansion tax will slow down an already sluggish housing market. The government should be trying to stimulate the economy, not suffocate it. The government would do better to add a penny to income tax and deal with the deficit simply, with a promise to reverse this move once the economic outlook improves.

“Longer term, those ‘aspirational’ buyers will have another tax to factor into their affordability calculations, which will negatively affect borrowing boundaries. While the wealthy and UHNW may not be overly concerned about an annual property charge, when other taxes also come into play such as inheritance tax, capital gains tax etc, the Middle East might start to look a lot more attractive.”

Constantly targeting the so-called wealthy is not the solution

Amy Reynolds, head of sales at Richmond estate agency Antony Roberts

“London property is directly tied to politics and the wider economy, and the drawn-out uncertainty over potential tax changes is freezing activity and costing the Treasury in lost stamp duty.

“Any talk of a ‘mansion tax’ or further property levies risks inflicting real damage. Wealth is relative – 1% for someone with a £2mn home is the same as 1% for someone with a £300,000 home. Many owners of large properties are not sitting on piles of cash; they face high running costs and maintenance bills. Bringing in another tax layer, and the red tape that comes with valuing such properties, would create huge administrative costs, push some homeowners into negative equity, and risk a self-inflicted crisis in the high-end market.

“In areas such as East Sheen and Richmond, £2mn doesn’t necessarily buy a mansion — it buys an ordinary family home. A so-called ‘mansion tax’ would unfairly penalise people who are property-rich but cash-poor. Many long-term owners here have simply benefited from rising property values over decades, not from high incomes.

“An annual charge based on property value rather than income would hit retired homeowners and families already stretched by high living costs, and could even force some to sell their homes just to pay the bill. It feels like a blunt instrument that risks destabilising the local market rather than generating fair revenue.

“Constantly targeting the so-called wealthy is not the solution. This country needs industry, entrepreneurs, and mobility – people able to move house and reinvest. We’ve already seen an exodus of wealthier Londoners moving abroad, and if that trend continues, it’s not just the housing market that will suffer but the UK tax base itself. Stability, clarity, and confidence are what the market needs most right now.”

An annual property tax would be a very effective way of unlocking the housing market

Jennie Hancock, founder & director of West Sussex buying agency Property Acquisitions

“An annual property tax would be a very effective way of unlocking the housing market and enabling it to function much more fluidly. In the pre-stamp duty days, people were able to move up and down the property ladder as their circumstances changed, whether they were upsizing for a growing family or downsizing later in life as it suited them, without the fear of an enormous tax bill each time they transacted.

“The burden of stamp duty has been enormous, particularly in the prime market, but it discourages activity at all levels. That was clear to see during the pandemic stamp duty holiday when the market was freed from its constraints.

“An annual property tax would spread the cost and become just another bill to pay, much like council tax, which is easier to budget for compared to raising a significant lump sum at the point of transaction. It should only apply to new transactions however, or allowances would need to be made for people who have moved in recent years to ensure they avoid a double whammy of stamp duty and an annual tax.”

Shifting Stamp Duty from the buyer to the seller would have a genuinely positive effect

Lucy Waters, Managing Director at Aria Finance

“The constant speculation around the November Budget is already creating paralysis across the property market. The long lead in period always prompts hesitation as buyers, sellers, and developers wait to see how they might be affected, particularly amid rumours of Stamp Duty reform. That uncertainty filters through every level of the market, slowing transactions, tightening liquidity, and eroding confidence.

“A mansion tax would be another serious blow to a sector that is already struggling. The prime market has faced years of pressure from higher borrowing costs, more complex tax rules, and additional regulatory and compliance requirements that have increased the cost of ownership. At the same time, a shrinking pool of international buyers following the non-dom rule changes has weakened demand. Introducing an annual levy on higher value homes would not only discourage mobility but also trap many who are asset rich yet cash poor, leaving them unable to remain in homes they have often lived in for decades. The knock-on impact on values would be inevitable.

“The proposal to extend Capital Gains Tax to main residences is equally concerning. Primary homes have always been exempt and removing that exemption would have a chilling effect. It would deter people from selling, downsizing, or upsizing because they would not want to crystallise a gain and be left with less equity to reinvest. In an environment of historic house price growth, that change could have far reaching consequences, dampening activity and values throughout the market.

“One reform that would have a genuinely positive effect would be shifting Stamp Duty from the buyer to the seller. It would remove a major upfront barrier, allowing purchasers to leverage the full purchase price rather than funding a dead cost that cannot be borrowed. How fairness would be managed for those who have already paid on the way in remains to be seen, but reform of this kind would be welcome.

“It is also unfortunate that the Budget comes so close to the traditional Christmas slowdown, meaning the market could remain subdued for the rest of the year. The mood music suggests that Rachel Reeves will focus on those deemed able to bear the burden, or in her words those with the broadest shoulders. But pushing further deterrents towards the very people who contribute most in tax could be a significant misstep, particularly when sentiment towards the UK’s economic direction is already fragile.”

A modest increase to VAT or Income Tax would be far less damaging than raising property taxes

Christian Lock-Necrews, Prime Central London specialist at Winkworth

“Confidence is absolutely central to the health of the prime London market, and constant speculation about new property taxes is doing little to help. A mansion tax or annual property levy would be hugely damaging to confidence and investment, while extending Capital Gains Tax to main residences would simply stall the market.

“If the Government wants to raise revenue, the focus should be on growing the economy, not penalising a sector that already carries an increasingly heavy tax load. My belief is that a modest increase to VAT or Income Tax would be far less damaging; it would generate a meaningful rise in government revenue while keeping the UK an attractive place to live, work, and invest.

“That said, those who need to move are finding this a good moment to do so. There are fewer buyers per property, and LonRes data shows around 15–20% fewer transactions across the markets my Winkworth team operates in. However, those active in the market are serious, motivated, and recognising genuine opportunities to negotiate well.”

There is little to no hope of the government announcing any positive news this Budget

Nigel Bishop, of buying agency Recoco Property Search

“There is little to no hope of the government announcing any positive news this Budget which is already hindering house hunters from making major financial decisions, let alone finalising their search.

“There’s a certain irony to the current market sentiment as it is a strong buyer’s market but the majority of house hunters simply don’t want to take advantage of this as the economic climate has simply killed buyer confidence and, with that, the property market.

“The key to regaining confidence is to minimise stamp duty implications. To get the property market moving again, we would also like the Chancellor to really think about how changes to Inheritance Tax or Capital Gains Tax, for example, could have an incredibly negative long-term impact. To avoid punishing homeowners, we hope for the Budget to include other, more balanced solutions that tackle the UK’s hole in public finances.”

The proposed ‘mansion’ tax has the potential to cause an enormous degree of confusion

Marco Previero, co-founder & Head of Research at relocation agency R3Location

“My main hope for the upcoming Budget announcement is that none of the scaremongering that has followed various pre-announcements over the last six months crystallises in any meaningful way. The uncertainty leading up to the budget is unsettling the sales and lettings market, and with this up-coming budget, the devil will really be in the detail.

“The proposed ‘mansion’ tax has the potential to cause an enormous degree of confusion. Determining how properties are valued and how this new levy will interact with Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT) could take considerable time. Key questions also remain unanswered – for instance, will there be a period of grace for those who have purchased property and paid SDLT recently? How will they be affected? It is difficult to form any opinions or predictions when so much detail is missing, and we have no idea how rocky the road ahead may be.

“It’s too early to say for sure, but increasing current property taxes or adding a new one might not actually help the government raise the significant revenue it’s aiming for. It will dampen the London property market, limiting income for the government and stifling growth.”

A modest, transparent adjustment to income tax would be far easier for most to manage than yet another layer of complex property levies

Ross D’Aniello, CEO & co-founder of country house specialist estate agency Chartwell Noble

“The uncertainty surrounding proposed property taxes has created a market in limbo. Buyers are hesitant to commit without factoring in significant price reductions to offset perceived risks, whilst confidence, rather than affordability, has become the real casualty. Most buyers and sellers we speak to accept that higher taxes are inevitable, but the constant speculation and complexity are paralysing decision-making.

“What we’d like to see in the Autumn Budget is a return to common sense and long-term stability. The country house market thrives on confidence and continuity, not short-term policy shifts. A simplification of property taxation would go a long way. By this I mean freeze any talk of a mansion tax, ease the burden of stamp duty to encourage mobility across the upper tiers of the market and set out a fair and predictable framework for inheritance tax that protects family ownership and the heritage of rural homes. Above all, the government should focus on creating an environment that rewards long-term stewardship rather than penalising it.

“A modest, transparent adjustment to income tax would be far easier for most to manage than yet another layer of complex property levies. The £1mn+ country homes sector underpins much of the rural economy, from local trades and suppliers to hospitality and land management. Restoring confidence here would help get transactions moving again and bring much-needed momentum back to the market.

“Generating activity in the market will dwarf any gains made through punitive taxation. Incentives will be much more fruitful and the confidence and comfort they will provide will allow gains which will have a lasting impact to the good rather than a negative short-term impact which will echo for years. The property market is a core pillar of the economy and as such stimulation, rather than suppression is the key to driving much needed energy into the government coffers.”

We expect the Budget to include tax increases for the UK’s wealthy

James Nightingall, founder of proptech start-up HomeFinder AI

“We expect the Budget to include tax increases for the UK’s wealthy but want to remind the Chancellor that this move contributed to last year’s exodus of HNWIs and resulted in a loss of investment, talent and business opportunities for the UK. It also didn’t have the positive outcome for the property market that the government had hoped for with many of the investment properties still standing empty as house hunters remain cautious. To drive buyer confidence, we hope for the Budget to include some incentives or initiatives; particularly for first-time buyers who struggle to get on the property ladder or safe up a sufficient deposit.”

Uncertainty around future taxes is shaking confidence right across the property market

Claire Whisker, Founder of specialist buying agency First In The Door

“From upper-mid to ultra-prime levels, uncertainty around future taxes is shaking confidence right across the market. People want to move, but they’re holding back. Not because they can’t afford to buy, but because they don’t know what’s coming next. Every client conversation at the moment includes a version of the same question… ‘Should we wait until after the Budget?’

“What the UK prime property market urgently needs is clarity and consistency. Confidence will only return when buyers and sellers can plan ahead. People can adapt to higher costs if they’re clearly set out and proportionate, but the constant speculation about mansion taxes, stamp duty reform and inheritance tax changes is freezing decision-making at every level.

“My wish list is simple. First, I don’t want to see any new mansion tax surprises. Even the suggestion of such a levy has already sent shockwaves through the market, discouraging high-value buyers from committing.

“Second, I’d like to see a fairer, more proportionate Stamp Duty system. The current structure discourages people upsizing or downsizing, particularly the latter. Reforming thresholds and reducing punitive top-end rates would help re-energise the prime markets and, in turn, generate greater overall tax receipts through higher transaction volumes.

“Third, there needs to be genuine support for downsizers. Many older homeowners in prime areas would happily move to something smaller, releasing larger family homes back into circulation. However, the cost of doing so, particularly Stamp Duty, makes it financially unattractive. A targeted relief for downsizers would unlock thousands of transactions and ease supply constraints across the market.

“Finally, we need clarity for second-home buyers and international investors. These groups play a vital role in supporting regional economies, yet constant talk of additional levies and council tax premiums has created hesitation. A balanced, long-term approach would help restore confidence and inward investment.”

The government should be introducing new reliefs or exemptions for retirement housing or risk paralysing that end of the market

Richard Adamson, Residential Managing Partner & auctioneer at Allsop

“The Chancellor will need to be selective with her proposals. Rolling out all or most of the rumoured measures at once would be political suicide.

“If we see a new mansion tax on homes valued over £2mn, it will disproportionately hit those in the South East.

“An annual property tax based on value – either alongside or replacing Stamp Duty – is also on the table. This would likely push prices down across many markets, affecting affordability and triggering a price correction. But this won’t happen overnight; sellers will need time to adjust to what buyers are willing to pay post-Budget. If implemented, such a tax would discourage homeowners and landlords from making value-adding improvements like extensions, resulting in less work for local builders.

“Furthermore, additional taxation would drive even more landlords (professional and accidental) out of the market. That’s especially worrying given the ongoing landlord exodus, spurred by EPC changes and, more recently, the Renters Rights Bill (now Act). Some may choose to enter or re-enter the market after a significant price correction, but that won’t happen instantly.

“The rising cost of property ownership as a result of additional taxes would deter potential buyers, exacerbating the existing shortage of rental stock. This comes at a time when development activity is already constrained by high build costs, inflation, and regulatory hurdles. It risks undermining the government’s housing agenda by making it harder for housebuilders to sell what they’ve been encouraged to build, which will lead to anything but more homes under construction, across the spectrum.

“Introducing a capital gains tax on primary residences would also be highly damaging. In addition to making ownership less appealing, that would also discourage downsizers from moving to smaller properties, which the government desperately needs them to do. In order to truly incentivise downsizing or rightsizing, the government should be introducing new reliefs or exemptions for retirement housing or risk paralysing that end of the market.”

Even the suggestion of a new mansion tax or changes to inheritance tax has unsettled buyers

Samantha Child, founder of Samantha Child Property Search

“The upper country house market is in a state of hesitation, driven largely by uncertainty over future taxation. Even the suggestion of a new mansion tax or changes to inheritance tax has unsettled buyers, and that hesitation alone is enough to stall transactions.

“The mansion tax proposition needs to be scrapped, there needs to be a meaningful reform of stamp duty to encourage movement across the spectrum, as well as clear, long-term guidance on inheritance tax so families can plan with confidence. Buyers at this level are prepared to contribute fairly, but continual rumours of new levies only serve to paralyse decision-making.

“Beyond tax, there are other measures that would make a real difference. We need to see proper incentives for downsizers to release larger homes, and support for the development of high-quality smaller properties in rural and semi-rural areas for them to move into. Investment in local infrastructure, from transport links to broadband, is equally important to keep these regions thriving and connected.

“Energy efficiency and sustainability are also key areas. Targeted support would go a long way in restoring buyer confidence. Many period country houses simply can’t be retrofitted to modern EPC standards without losing the very features that make them unique. A one-size-fits-all approach doesn’t work for heritage properties and blanket regulations risk penalising responsible owners. They are also notoriously expensive to run and difficult to upgrade, which naturally puts some buyers off. Financial incentives such as grants, tax relief or low-interest ‘green loans’ for energy-efficient improvements would make these properties more appealing by reducing long-term running costs and giving buyers confidence they can improve efficiency over time. If the government offered clarity and meaningful financial support, it would not only protect the heritage of these homes but also unlock fresh demand from buyers who want to invest sustainably without fear of being penalised later.”

If the government has to do something, we would favour an increase in Capital Gains Tax on second homes

Charlie Miéville & Helen Marsh, Residential Property Partners at law firm Forsters

“The upcoming Budget and various leaks of possible tax tweaks are causing much uncertainty in an already fragile property market. The higher end of the residential sector, in particular, has been reeling since the SDLT rises in 2014 and subsequently—data on prices and transaction volumes shows that the market hasn’t truly recovered. More recently, the announcement of the end of the non-dom regime has had a similarly chilling effect, confirming that sudden tax changes can have long-lasting and damaging consequences.

“An annual property tax, while potentially more equitable over time, would result in a vast drop in revenue initially — even if ultimately more money is raised. It risks deterring mobility, especially where the lifetime tax burden would exceed the one-off SDLT payment. Yet, some analyses suggest that over a 20-year horizon, many homeowners would be better off by thousands, thanks to the immediate liquidity retained from not paying SDLT upfront. This could open up the market, enabling people to move more freely, and perhaps even encourage developers to return, given the recent squeeze on margins from high purchase and holding costs combined with construction inflation. However, it fails on the main aim of this exercise – quick revenue generation.

“A mansion tax, meanwhile, risks penalising those who are property-rich but cash-poor. In London and the South East, many homes now exceed £2mn simply due to historic price growth, not because their owners have the income to service a new annual levy. A £2mn threshold could prompt widespread down-valuations and a wave of sales aimed at slipping under the line, potentially driving prices down further and complicating the valuation process for years to come.

“If the government has to do something, we would favour an increase in Capital Gains Tax on second homes, aligning rates with income tax levels – something we had expected in the last Budget. Primary residences should remain untouched. The average family already shoulders a heavy tax burden, alongside high purchase prices and rising mortgage rates. With the Renters’ Rights Act now enacted (although not yet in force), landlords face even more disincentives, but perhaps higher CGT rates might persuade some to stay in the market, helping to protect the dwindling rental stock and temper record rent levels. Importantly, CGT is a charge on profit, not on entry, and is often more palatable than upfront costs. Levying CGT on primary homes would also discourage downsizing—something we need to encourage to free up larger homes for growing families.

“What the Chancellor needs most is a thriving economy and growth. Tax policy should stimulate, not stifle, economic activity—especially transactions. On our wish list for the Budget: certainty and clarity (no one wants to commit when the rules may change tomorrow); a reform of SDLT and council tax that doesn’t penalise movement or development; and incentives for wealth creators to stay—or return.

“Whatever the decision, the Chancellor has an unenviable task ahead. We’re very glad it’s not ours to make. Time will tell.”

The Autumn Budget can’t come soon enough for the housing sector

Jon Di-Stefano, CEO of sustainable housebuilder Greencore Homes

“The Autumn Budget can’t come soon enough for the housing sector. The uncertainty of the past couple of months has not been helpful and now we must wait for whatever the Chancellor has in store.

“My main concerns are over where the seemingly inevitable spending cuts will fall, how they affect people and the wider economy, and whether any further changes are planned for housing. Following several months of positive announcements, I am not expecting significant additional funding for the sector, but it is essential that the Government stands by its current commitments. They need to use this is an opportunity to strengthen confidence and provide momentum to the housing market.

“Spending cuts will have a direct impact on buyer confidence and economic activity, so they must be considered carefully. When it comes to taxation, particularly in housing, the Government should also be cautious. Overhauling stamp duty would help to stimulate the market whereas a poorly designed tax on higher value properties could risk slowing it further.

“Anything that makes it easier to buy and sell homes will be good news for buyers, the housing market and the wider economy, but that clearly has to be balanced with responsibility for the public purse. Above all, what the industry needs from the Government in the Autumn Statement is clarity.”

Rather than specific policies, periods of uncertainty have historically caused the most damage to the market

Helen Curtis-Goulding, Partner at law firm Fladgate

“Through countless reforms to property taxes over the past two decades, instigated by a variety of different governments, one constant has prevailed: the market always adjusts. People’s homes are their sanctuary, and demand for high-end residential real estate will continue to show resilience in the face of macroeconomic and policy shifts.

“Rather than specific policies, periods of uncertainty have historically caused the most damage to the market. While buyers and sellers can adjust their underwriting to account for increased taxation and other costs associated with property purchases, a lack of clarity over forthcoming policy changes stagnates the market and inhibits dealmaking.

“Recent tax changes have resulted in a large proportion of wealthy UK residents leaving the country but retaining their premises here. This has resulted in fewer luxury premises coming to market. The property and wealth tax changes mooted ahead the upcoming Budget are equally unlikely to move the needle in terms of prompting a higher volume of sales.

“There is an argument that reducing taxes such as SDLT would result in more transactions taking place and more SDLT being paid overall. However, the proposal to place a sales tax on sellers rather than purchasers may simply discourage sellers from disposing of their properties, which would materially inhibit growth and stall the market. Similarly, given tax is only one consideration for the ultra-wealthy owners and acquirers of residential property, a mansion tax is unlikely to force high net worth owners into a sale.

“Ultimately, it would be foolish to assume that taxes will not increase post-Budget. Learning from previous Budgets which have introduced radical changes to the tax regime, there will be a vital interim period between the changes being announced and coming into law, in which the finer details are finessed and the industry grapples with the expected ramifications. During such a period, high-net worth owners and purchasers should focus on seeking the best possible counsel so as to put them in a position to pre-empt incoming tax changes and stay a step ahead of shifting policy.”

My biggest fear is that the Government will use this Budget for political theatre rather than practical reform

Craig Fuller, founder of Craig Fuller Property

“My biggest fear is that the Government will use this Budget for political theatre rather than practical reform. The idea of a mansion tax, a wealth tax, or capital gains on main residences might sound simple in theory, but in reality it would be a disaster for the housing market. It would create chaos at key price points, particularly between £2mn and £5mn, where much of the country’s prime housing activity sits. These are not speculative investments, they are long held family homes, often owned by people who are asset rich rather than cash rich. An annual levy or new capital gains burden would make those homes harder to sell, push buyers away, and create an entirely false valuation system.

“We would immediately see artificial price ceilings just below the £2mn threshold, with homes worth slightly more being quietly down valued to avoid the tax. It would suppress natural price growth, discourage investment in improvements, and deter both domestic and international buyers. High value homes already contribute significantly through stamp duty, inheritance tax, and VAT on maintenance and renovation. Adding another annual charge would simply slow transactions and drain confidence from a market that underpins so much of the wider economy.

“My hope is that common sense will prevail. The housing market is one of the few parts of the economy that continues to generate real growth and employment. It supports builders, tradespeople, conveyancers, surveyors, and countless local businesses. What we need now is stability, not short-term political gestures.

“If the Government genuinely wants to raise revenue, it should focus on modernising the planning system, encouraging sensible development, and improving liquidity rather than penalising ownership. A healthy property market benefits everyone, and confidence is its foundation. Undermine that, and you risk damaging far more than just the top end of the market.”

For many, a mansion tax could be the final straw after years of rising taxation

Scott Clay, director at property financier Together

“The rumoured introduction of a mansion tax, which could potentially levy 0.5% annually on homes valued over £2mn, could have far-reaching consequences for the UK property market and wider economy.

“For homeowners, this could mean an additional £10,000 per year simply for the privilege of staying in a property they already own, on top of stamp duty and other costs they have already paid to purchase the home. Many of these owners may be elderly, asset-rich but cash-poor, and unable to absorb such a financial burden without being forced to sell the home which they may have been in for decades.

“This could distort the market, creating a pricing bottleneck around the £2mn mark, with buyers and sellers alike seeking to avoid the tax threshold. While some may argue it could help free up larger homes and encourage downsizing, the method feels punitive and risks destabilising a segment of the market that has long been a cornerstone of UK property investment.

“More broadly, this could signal a worrying shift in the UK’s approach to wealth and investment. Recently, research has shown that one in five new buy-to-let companies established in 2025 were set up by expats and non-UK nationals, up from 13% in 2016.

“Together’s own lending data mirrors this trend, with between £1mn and £1.5mn lent monthly to foreign investors over the past year, leading us to reduce our rates on buy-to-let and commercial term loans for expats and foreign nationals to support growing international investment in the UK.

“That said, the proposed tax could push entrepreneurs and international investors to reconsider their position, with places like Dubai seeing record inflows of capital. The UK, once seen as a politically stable safe haven with a robust legal system and world-class financial services, is now grappling with post-Brexit uncertainty and rising social tensions.

“With years of working with high-net-worth clients who actively invest in this space, I am aware of multiple property transactions currently on hold pending the outcome of the budget, and this uncertainty is likely mirrored across the country. For many, this could be the final straw after years of rising taxation, bringing us to the highest tax burden since World War II.

“That said, it’s important to highlight regional resilience. Cities like Manchester in the North West have outperformed many southern areas since the pandemic, with prime residential property there likely to be less affected by this tax. We may even see a migration of wealth from the South East to the North West, where the economy is thriving and opportunities are growing.”

The Chancellor would be mindful to tread carefully

Rayna Hunter, CEO of property developer LH1 Global

“Kirstie Allsopp has recently been quoted as stating the Mansion Tax will shatter the housing market beyond repair and I am inclined to agree. If the Government penalise the top end of the housing market, this will have a ricochet effect across all levels of the market, which in turn will cause stagnation and an even greater slowdown in property sales.

“Less demand for property sales also impacts the housebuilders, which in turn resonates throughout the entire construction industry, as well as impacting the small to large businesses that support the many aspects of housebuilding.

“It is a well-known fact, the Government are calling for more homes to be built, likewise, it is deemed if the property market is buoyant, this in turn has a ripple effect and increases productivity in the economy. If it is subdued, which further property taxes will cause, then the loss to the Treasury could be greater than the anticipated income a new tax could bring.

“Stop one part of this chain and the whole thing breaks down, so the Chancellor would be mindful to tread carefully.”

Further tax increases would risk tipping an already fragile situation into decline

Richard Winter, of Richard Winter Property Search

“The UK’s property market has always been one of its greatest assets, but it thrives on stability, confidence and fairness. A pragmatic, growth-focused Budget could reignite momentum and keep investment flowing into places like South West London and prime areas of Surrey such as Cobham, Esher and the rest of Elmbridge.

“Over the past year, the steady increase in taxes has created huge uncertainty across the housing market. We’re only now beginning to see the full effect. Confidence has dipped and transactional activity has slowed dramatically.

“With just a month to go before the Autumn Budget, the market feels almost stagnant. Speaking to contacts across South West London and Surrey, it’s clear that the £5mn+ sector has virtually come to a standstill. From a buying agent’s perspective, the same properties are being circulated again and again, often now at significantly reduced prices which is a worrying sign of market fatigue.

“Further tax increases would risk tipping an already fragile situation into decline. Layers of additional taxation have smothered the market with negativity, discouraging movement, stifling transactions and ultimately reducing Treasury receipts.

“With so many wealthy having already left our shores, we should be thinking about how to attract them back rather than further tax rises which ultimately continue to push the wealthy away. The knock on effects of all of these wealthy people no longer spending their hard earned money in the UK and supporting so many other industries, like restaurants and bars and shops is only going to continue to have a negative effect on the total tax receipts but also will take away the wonderful buzz of our fine city. Ideally, we need to start to attract overseas investment back.

“So my Autumn Budget wish list for the property market would be:

• Freeze tax increases on property, particularly Stamp Duty, CGT and Inheritance Tax, to restore confidence and encourage movement at all levels.
• Do not implement the proposed Mansion Tax. It is going to be really difficult and complicated to implement, and will create months of uncertainty.
• Targeted Stamp Duty relief for downsizers to help free up larger family homes and improve market fluidity.
• Incentives for energy-efficient upgrades such as grants or tax relief for retrofitting period and prime homes, aligning sustainability goals with market activity.
• Simplified rules for overseas buyers and investors to attract international capital back into the UK market.
• Commitment to long-term stability. We need a clear, consistent property tax framework that gives buyers, sellers and investors confidence to plan ahead.”

Main image: This article features insights from 50 prime residential industry leaders, including estate agency owners, sales brokers, buying agents, luxury developers, financiers, legal advisors, and more. In alphabetical order: Tom Adams (RedBook Agency); Richard Adamson (Allsop); Dominic Agace (Winkworth); Nicholas Austin (RiverHomes); Daniel Baliti (Vabel); Sharon Barnard (Stacks Property Search); Nigel Bishop (Recoco Property Search); Louisa Brodie (Banda); Richard Bryce (House Collective); Samantha Child (Child Property Search); Scott Clay (Together); Joanna Cocking (Hamptons); Rupert Collingwood (The London Broker); Charles Curran (Maskells); Helen Curtis-Goulding (Fladgate); Lindsay Cuthill (Blue Book Agency); Ross D’Aniello (Chartwell Noble); Camilla Dell (Black Brick); Jon Di-Stefano (Greencore Homes); Marcus Dixon (JLL); Shaun Drummond (Harrods Estates); Becky Fatemi (Sotheby’s International Realty UK); Jamie Freeman (Haringtons UK);  Craig Fuller (Craig Fuller Property); Nicholas Gray (Native Land); James Greenwood (Stacks Property Search); Jennie Hancock (Property Acquisitions); Mark Harris (SPF Private Clients); Matt Henderson (Strutt & Parker); Rayna Hunter ( LH1 Global); Alex Isidro ( United Kingdom Sotheby's International Realty); Scott Joseph (Anderson Rose); Christian Lock-Necrews (Winkworth); Ollie Marshall (Prime Purchase); Rhianne McIlroy (Middleton Advisors); Charlie Miéville & Helen Marsh (Forsters); Liam Monaghan (LCP Private Office); James Nightingall (HomeFinder AI); Marco Previero (R3Location); Amy Reynolds (Antony Roberts); Matthew Robertson (Valouran); Lisa Simon (Carter Jonas); Jess Simpson (Stoneacre Advisors); Jason Tebb (OnTheMarket); Lucy Waters (Aria Finance); Will Watson (The Buying Solution); Alec Watt (Accouter Group); Claire Whisker (First In The Door); Geoff Wilford (Wilfords); Richard Winter (Richard Winter Property Search).